Новости с графиками внавалку

This is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial divided by the price of gold. In 2001 it took 44 ounces of gold to buy one share of the Dow. This is a very easy to calculate - all you have to do is take the current price of the Dow (12,400) and divide it by the price of gold ($1,430) and today the Dow is worth just 8.67 ounces of Gold. So the stock market has lost roughly 80% of its value when priced in gold even though the stock market is getting closer to its all time high when priced in U.S. dollars. This basically demonstrates that the stock market has fictitious gains despite all the hype you hear in the media about how well the stock market has performed....

Ultimately the Dow will likely lose 90% total value against the price of gold when this trend is over. Which would bring the dow gold ratio to about 1 oz. This has happened 2 times in the last 100 years. 1st in the stock market crash of the 1930's, and Second in the Late 70's, and should repeat again in the late 2010's.

The chart demonstrates that the dow / gold ratio has generally traded in a 2 year cycles where the dow / gold ratio consolidates for 2 years and then starts a down leg, consolidates for 2 years and then another down leg etc.

We are now near a 2 year consolidation of the dow / gold ratio, and are probably going to start another downleg where the price of gold outperforms the stock market. Or in other words the Dow is likely to become much cheaper when priced in gold.

Комментарий:
I think the next down leg in the dow / gold ratio is beginning. Judging by the past we should at least see another 25% drop in the dow / gold ratio which would bring it from around 8 ounces to around 5 ounces of gold to be able to buy 1 share of the dow jones. This will probably be accomplished sometime in the year 2012. Then it will trade sideways for another 2 - 3 years, and then the final down leg in the dow gold ratio will occur. I think the last drop from 5 ounces to 1 ounce will occur all in one shot which will probably be by 2015 - 2018, and possibly overshoot to below 1 ounce (we will have to analyze this as time goes on) in the year 2020. By then stocks will be extremely cheap and time to buy them.